New Hampshire — Governor
Currently held by a Republican · incumbent running
Democrat
Cinde Warmington
34%
Republican
Kelly Ayotte
66%
ForecastLean R
- Projected margin
- R+4.2
- 80% range
- R+17.4 to D+9.0
- Partisan lean
- D+4.3
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.68×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
29%71%
Polls 29%Fundamentals 71%
- Polling average
- R+6.6
- Fundamentals
- D+1.2
- Blended
- R+3.6
- Similar-race shift
- −1.1
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 7.8 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 4
- Distinct pollsters
- 2
- Most recent
- June 25, 2026
- Democrat
- 38.0%
- Republican
- 44.7%
- Undecided / other
- 17.3%
- Spread between polls
- 1.1 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- D+4.3
- Elasticity
- 0.99
- Incumbency
- −5.0
- Candidate experience
- +0.3
- Fundraising
- 0.0
- National environment
- D+5.3
- Expected margin
- D+2.2