Michigan 4th District
Currently held by a Republican · incumbent running
Democrat
Sean McCann
44%
Republican
Bill Huizenga
56%
ForecastTilt R
- Projected margin
- R+1.5
- 80% range
- R+14.9 to D+12.0
- Partisan lean
- R+4.9
- Tipping-point chance
- 1.10%
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.72×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
91%
Polls 9%Fundamentals 91%
- Polling average
- R+5.8
- Fundamentals
- R+0.4
- Blended
- R+0.9
- Similar-race shift
- +1.4
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 5.4 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 1
- Distinct pollsters
- 1
- Most recent
- November 21, 2025
- Democrat
- 40.1%
- Republican
- 45.9%
- Undecided / other
- 14.0%
- Spread between polls
- 0.0 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+4.9
- Elasticity
- 0.90
- Incumbency
- −3.4
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- +0.7
- National environment
- D+5.3
- Expected margin
- R+1.8