Texas 22nd District
Currently held by a Republican · open seat · district redrawn for 2026
Democrat
Marquette Greene-Scott
7%
Republican
Trever Nehls
93%
ForecastLikely R
- Projected margin
- R+17.9
- 80% range
- R+33.0 to R+2.7
- Partisan lean
- R+21.0
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.18%
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 2.01×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
100.0%
Fundamentals 100.0%
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- R+17.3
- Blended
- R+17.3
- Similar-race shift
- +0.5
Polling
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+21.0
- Elasticity
- 1.00
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- −1.9
- National environment
- D+5.3
- Expected margin
- R+17.8