California 40th District
Currently held by a Republican · incumbent running · district redrawn for 2026 · same-party (top-two) contest
Democrat
(no Democrat — top-two)
100.0%
Republican
Ken Calvert
0.0%
ForecastSafe D
- Projected margin
- R+9.7
- 80% range
- R+23.6 to D+4.1
- Partisan lean
- R+11.1
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.48%
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.80×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
100.0%
Fundamentals 100.0%
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- R+9.1
- Blended
- R+9.1
- Similar-race shift
- −0.5
Polling
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+11.1
- Elasticity
- 0.99
- Incumbency
- −1.9
- Candidate experience
- −0.8
- Fundraising
- −0.2
- National environment
- D+5.3
- Expected margin
- R+8.6