Maine — U.S. Senate
Currently held by a Republican · incumbent running
Democrat
Troy Jackson
74%
Republican
Susan Collins
26%
ForecastLean D
- Projected margin
- D+4.9
- 80% range
- R+5.0 to D+14.8
- Partisan lean
- D+8.0
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.07×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
31%69%
Polls 31%Fundamentals 69%
- Polling average
- D+1.9
- Fundamentals
- D+8.5
- Blended
- D+5.5
- Similar-race shift
- −0.8
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 6.6 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 3
- Distinct pollsters
- 3
- Most recent
- August 10, 2026
- Democrat
- 48.1%
- Republican
- 46.2%
- Undecided / other
- 5.7%
- Spread between polls
- 0.8 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- D+8.0
- Elasticity
- 0.92
- Incumbency
- −4.2
- Candidate experience
- −0.6
- Fundraising
- +1.5
- National environment
- D+5.3
- Expected margin
- D+9.3