Alaska — U.S. Senate
Currently held by a Republican · incumbent running · ranked-choice voting
Democrat
Mary Peltola
41%
Republican
Dan Sullivan
59%
ForecastTilt R
- Projected margin
- R+1.6
- 80% range
- R+11.7 to D+8.3
- Partisan lean
- R+12.7
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.09×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
45%55%
Polls 45%Fundamentals 55%
- Polling average
- D+1.1
- Fundamentals
- R+8.2
- Blended
- R+1.1
- Similar-race shift
- +0.3
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 9.3 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 8
- Distinct pollsters
- 3
- Most recent
- August 5, 2026
- Democrat
- 50.0%
- Republican
- 48.9%
- Undecided / other
- 1.0%
- Spread between polls
- 1.7 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+12.7
- Elasticity
- 0.95
- Incumbency
- −4.2
- Candidate experience
- −0.3
- Fundraising
- +2.7
- National environment
- D+5.3
- Expected margin
- R+8.5