Virginia — U.S. Senate
Currently held by a Democrat · incumbent running
Democrat
Mark Warner
97%
Republican
Bert Mizusawa
3%
ForecastSafe D
- Projected margin
- D+18.9
- 80% range
- D+6.9 to D+30.9
- Partisan lean
- D+7.3
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.47×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
16%84%
Polls 16%Fundamentals 84%
- Polling average
- D+16.5
- Fundamentals
- D+20.1
- Blended
- D+19.5
- Similar-race shift
- −0.9
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 3.5 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 2
- Distinct pollsters
- 1
- Most recent
- June 16, 2026
- Democrat
- 49.1%
- Republican
- 32.5%
- Undecided / other
- 14.9%
- Spread between polls
- 0.5 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- D+7.3
- Elasticity
- 0.98
- Incumbency
- +4.2
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- +4.3
- National environment
- D+5.3
- Expected margin
- D+21.0